2020 breaking record for Polish warehousing
The highest total on record – 5.2 million m2 of warehouse space – was leased in Poland in 2020, following significant changes in consumer behavior during an exceptional year, according to the Axi Immo industrial agency.
The industrial and logistics sector has been the fastest to adapt to the Covid-19 requirements imposed on it, adapting supply chains and ensuring the health and safety of workers and customers. 2020 has also been a year of rapid growth in all segments related to the e-commerce industry.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, the volume of investment transactions in the warehouse reached approx. 700 million euros, bringing the annual total to a record 2.6 billion euros, 65% more than in 2019 and 41% more than the previous record set in 2018 (1.8 billion euros). ‘euros). This also represents around 50% of the capital invested in the entire Polish commercial real estate market and was achieved despite significant difficulties with site visits. The increased interest in the warehouse sector has lowered yields, which currently stand at 6–6.25% (gross) for supermarkets, 5.5–6% for urban logistics and 4.25–4 , 5% for single tenant properties with long and high leases – quality occupants.
The main transactions recorded in 2020 include: the acquisition of the Goodman portfolio in Central Europe by GLP, listed on the Singapore stock exchange (approximately 880,000 m², of which 66% in Poland); the sale of Panattoni’s portfolio of five warehouse properties (approximately 280,000 m²) to Savills IM; the acquisition of seven buildings in the P3 park of Mszczonów from P3 by Elite Partners Capital (approximately 229,000 m²) and the purchase of the national portfolio of Hines (170,000 m²) by CGL. New players have also appeared on the Polish investment market, notably with the purchase of the Logistic City park in central Poland (135,000 m²) by Reino Capital, Grosvenor and IO AM.
Total demand reached a record 5.2 million m² (+ 29% year-on-year). The fourth quarter represented 1.5 million m² – the highest quarterly figure in history. The largest leasing transactions included Amazon Świebodzin (203,500 m2), Prologis Janki – Euronet (73,400 m2), Hillwood Łódź I – Amazon BTS (73,000 m2), 7R BTS Żabka – Radzymin (67,500 m2) and Panattoni – BTS 4F Czeladź (67,000 m2)).
Due to the high absorption, the vacancy rate fell back to 7.1% (-40 bps year-on-year) at the end of 2020. The highest vacancy was recorded in Upper Silesia (10.2%) and in Warsaw Zone II (10.1%). In contrast, Szczecin and eastern Poland had the smallest amounts of available space (below 1 pct), followed by Warsaw Zone III (1.4 pct), western Poland (2.4 pct) and the TriCity (3.4 pct).
We can say with certainty that throughout 2020 the e-commerce industry has been the main driver of changes in the industrial market. The growing popularity of online sales has had a positive ripple effect on activity in other sectors, particularly the courier companies and the packaging industry. The second group of companies that has recorded significant growth is the production and distribution of durable consumer goods such as electronics, furniture, home furnishings and sports equipment. Another rapidly growing segment was the electric mobility industry, particularly in the production of batteries for electric cars.
Anna Głowacz, industrial manager at Axi Immo
Poland’s total industrial stock reached 20.5 million m² (+ 11% year-on-year) at the end of last year. Throughout the year, developers achieved 2.1 million sqm (-23.5% yoy), with the most active players being Panattoni (nearly 1 million sqm), Hillwood (322,200 sqm ) and 7R (165,400 m²). The largest projects delivered in 2020 include Panattoni A2 Warsaw Park (Grodzisk) – 103,700 m2, P3 Mszczonów – 75,800 m2, Hillwood Wrocław Wschód II – 63,900 m2, MLP Pruszków II – 55,000 m2, Prologis Ruda Śląskask – 51,200 m2 and 7R Park Ganska – 51,200 m2 – 50,900 m². At the end of the year, there was 1.9 million m² of warehouse space under construction (-2% yoy), with speculative development accounting for 23.6% of the total – its lowest level since Q3 2017. Silesia – 359,000 m², Warsaw – 357,000 m² and TriCity – 272,000 m².